Economic Indicators

Real data from U.S. government sources — with plain-English context for every chart.

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Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Number of jobs the U.S. economy added or lost each month — the most-watched number in the monthly jobs report.

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  • The BLS CES employment report is one of the most closely watched economic releases, with financial markets often reacting immediately when it is published on the first Friday of each month.
  • What are nonfarm payrolls? Nonfarm payrolls measures total paid employees at all U.S. businesses except farms, private households, nonprofit organizations, and the unincorporated self-employed.
  • Revisions from prior months are common and can be significant.
  • Learn more about the CES Survey

Labor Force Participation Rate

The share of the civilian noninstitutional population working or actively job hunting.

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  • Prime-age workers (25–54) are past typical school years and before typical retirement age, making their participation rate the clearest read on core labor market attachment.
  • Overall LFPR peaked near 67% in 2000 and has trended down over two decades, primarily reflecting population aging rather than structural job market weakness.
  • Prime-age LFPR has broadly recovered to near pre-pandemic levels (around 83–84%), suggesting the overall rate decline overstates true labor force disengagement. A rising rate can push unemployment higher as more people enter the job search.
  • Learn more about the Current Population Survey

Measures of Unemployment

Three BLS measures of labor market slack — from the narrow long-term unemployment rate to the official rate to a broad underutilization gauge that captures discouraged workers and the underemployed.

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  • U-1 — Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force. The most restrictive measure: only the persistently jobless.
  • U-3 (Official) — The headline rate: jobless people who actively searched for work in the past 4 weeks and are available to start. The Federal Reserve targets full employment using this measure.
  • U-6 — The broadest measure: adds marginally attached workers (including discouraged workers who've given up searching) and people working part-time for economic reasons (involuntary part-time).
  • When U-6 is significantly above U-3, there is substantial underutilization beyond what the headline rate captures — for example, if U-3 is 4% but U-6 is 7.5%, roughly 3.5 percentage points of the workforce is underemployed or discouraged.
  • Below ~5% U-3 is historically considered near full employment; the gap between U-3 and U-6 tends to narrow in tight labor markets.
  • Learn more about the Current Population Survey

Employment-to-Population Ratio

The share of the civilian noninstitutional population that is currently employed — a broad measure of labor market health unaffected by labor force exit.

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  • Unlike the unemployment rate, the Employment-to-Population ratio doesn't change when discouraged workers stop searching.
  • Prime-age workers (25–54) strip out the distorting effects of school enrollment and retirement trends, providing a cleaner signal of whether the core workforce is employed.
  • Overall EPOP fell sharply in 2020 and has gradually recovered, but remains below its pre-2020 peak — partly reflecting continued population aging.
  • Prime-age EPOP has recovered more fully and reached historically high levels in recent years, suggesting underlying labor demand has been strong for core working-age adults even as overall EPOP lags.
  • Learn more about the Current Population Survey

U.S. Population by Labor Status (Employed, Unemployed, Not in Labor Force)

The civilian noninstitutional population aged 16+ broken into three mutually exclusive groups that sum to the total population at every point in time.

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  • Labor force = Employed + Unemployed. The unemployment rate measures jobless share of the labor force, not of total population.
  • Employed + Unemployed + Not in Labor Force = Civilian Noninstitutional Population (16+).
  • The "Not in Labor Force" category is large (~105M) and growing with an aging population — retirees, students, caregivers, and discouraged workers all count here.
  • Watch for the blue employed area contracting relative to gray NILF as a sign of structural labor force withdrawal.
  • Learn more about the Current Population Survey
GDP Overview

Real GDP

The inflation-adjusted total value of all goods and services produced in the U.S. in a quarter.

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  • Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is the informal definition of a recession.
  • "Real" GDP removes the effect of inflation, making comparisons across time meaningful.
  • GDP growth above ~2% annually is generally considered healthy for a mature economy like the U.S.

Contribution to Real GDP Growth

How many percentage points each component (C, I, G, NX) added to or subtracted from quarterly GDP growth. Bars sum to total GDP growth.

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  • Consumer spending (C) typically contributes the most to GDP growth in healthy quarters.
  • Net exports (NX) contribution is usually small and often negative due to persistent U.S. trade deficits.
  • Investment (I) is the most volatile component — large swings signal shifting business confidence.
  • Source: BEA NIPA Table 1.1.2 — Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP.
GDP Components — Detail

Personal Consumption (C)

Household spending on goods and services — the largest single component of GDP (~70%).

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  • Because consumer spending drives roughly 70% of the economy, this is the single most important GDP component to watch for signs of slowing growth.
  • Services (~65% of PCE) — intangible things you consume: doctor visits, rent, streaming subscriptions, haircuts. The largest and most stable slice; it rarely falls sharply even in downturns.
  • Nondurable Goods (~22% of PCE) — physical items used quickly: groceries, gas, clothing. Moderately volatile and sensitive to price changes (especially energy).
  • Durable Goods (~13% of PCE) — big-ticket items expected to last 3+ years: cars, appliances, furniture. The most volatile PCE component — it swoops down in recessions (people delay purchases) and bounces back fast.

Gross Private Investment (I)

Business spending on equipment, structures, and IP, plus residential construction and inventory changes.

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  • Investment is the most volatile GDP component — it falls sharply in recessions and tends to lead recoveries. Businesses cut spending on new equipment and construction long before consumers pull back.
  • Nonresidential Investment — business spending on long-lived productive assets. The broadest measure of private investment in capacity, spanning physical infrastructure, machinery, and knowledge assets.
    • Equipment — machines, computers, vehicles, and industrial tools that businesses use to produce goods and services. Rises when firms are confident about future demand.
    • Structures — factories, warehouses, office buildings, pipelines, and utility installations. Long construction lead times make this a lagging indicator — projects already in progress keep investment elevated even after conditions soften.
    • Intellectual Property Products — software, research & development, and entertainment originals (films, TV shows). The fastest-growing component over the past 30 years, reflecting the shift toward a knowledge-based economy.
  • Residential Investment — single-family homes, apartment buildings, manufactured housing, and renovations. Highly sensitive to mortgage rates; typically the first component to turn at a cycle peak and trough.
  • Inventory Change — the net change in unsold goods held by businesses. Can swing sharply: businesses build inventories in anticipation of demand and run them down in downturns. Negative inventory change subtracts from GDP even if final sales are strong.

Government Spending (G)

Federal, state, and local government spending on goods, services, and investment in infrastructure.

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  • This measures only direct government purchases of goods and services — it does not include transfer payments like Social Security or Medicare. Those programs redistribute income but don't represent government directly buying something produced.
  • Federal Defense — military pay, weapons procurement, operations, and maintenance. Driven by policy decisions and overseas commitments rather than the business cycle. Often counter-cyclical: defense spending has held steady or grown during recessions.
  • Federal Nondefense — spending by civilian agencies: the National Park Service, NASA, federal courts, infrastructure grants, and more. The smallest of the three components and relatively stable year-to-year.
  • State & Local — the largest government component. Covers schools, roads, bridges, police, fire departments, and other services that shape daily life. Unlike the federal government, most states must balance their budgets — so this component tends to be pro-cyclical, shrinking in recessions when tax revenues fall.

Net Exports

The inflation-adjusted value of U.S. exports minus imports — a negative value means the U.S. imports more than it exports (trade deficit).

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  • The U.S. has run a persistent trade deficit for decades, meaning imports exceed exports.
  • A weaker dollar makes U.S. exports cheaper abroad and tends to improve net exports over time.
  • Trade deficits are not inherently bad — they often reflect strong domestic demand for foreign goods.
Income & Savings

Real Disposable Income Per Capita

After-tax personal income per person, adjusted for inflation — what the average American actually has to spend or save.

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  • Real per capita DPI is one of the best single measures of living standards over time.
  • Stagnant or falling real DPI — even with nominal wage gains — signals inflation is outpacing income.
  • Rising real DPI generally supports consumer spending and broad economic growth.

Personal Saving Rate

Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — how much of after-tax income households are saving vs. spending.

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  • A very low saving rate can signal households are financially stretched or spending freely on confidence.
  • Saving rates spiked during COVID-19; the drawdown since drove strong consumer spending in 2021–2023.
  • Structural decline in saving can eventually constrain consumption if households become overleveraged.

Income Growth vs. Inflation

Year-over-year percent change in average hourly earnings vs. headline CPI. When wages grow faster than prices, workers gain purchasing power. When inflation outpaces wages, real incomes shrink.

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · CES & CPI-U (SA) · bls.gov/ces

  • The gap between wage growth and inflation — sometimes called "real wage growth" — is the single clearest indicator of whether workers are getting ahead or falling behind.
  • From 2021 to 2023, inflation surged well above wage growth, eroding purchasing power. The gap has since narrowed significantly.
  • Average hourly earnings are a broad nominal wage measure. They don't account for taxes or benefits, but they're the most timely monthly signal available.
  • BLS series: Avg. Hourly Earnings — CES0500000003 · Headline CPI — CUSR0000SA0. Both seasonally adjusted.
Credit & Debt

Household Debt Service Ratio

The share of after-tax income that households devote to required debt payments — mortgage principal and interest, plus consumer debt (credit cards, auto, student loans, etc.). A rising ratio means more income is going to debt obligations, leaving less to spend or save.

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Source: Federal Reserve · Financial Accounts of the United States · FRED: TDSP

  • A high debt service ratio limits consumer spending and makes households more vulnerable to income shocks like job loss or a recession.
  • The ratio rose sharply before the 2008 financial crisis as mortgage debt ballooned, then fell as households deleveraged and interest rates declined.
  • Rising interest rates push this ratio higher even if debt balances hold steady, as new borrowing costs more to service.
  • FRED series: TDSP — Seasonally adjusted, quarterly.

Delinquency Rates by Loan Type

The percentage of outstanding loans where payments are 30 or more days past due, reported by commercial banks. Rising delinquency signals growing financial stress among borrowers.

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Source: Federal Reserve · Charge-Off and Delinquency Rates · federalreserve.gov

  • Credit card delinquency is the most sensitive and fastest-moving indicator — consumers typically miss card payments before missing mortgage or installment loan payments.
  • Mortgage delinquency is the most economically consequential — it often spills into foreclosures and can destabilize housing markets.
  • Other Consumer Loans covers all non-credit-card consumer installment debt at commercial banks: auto loans, personal loans, and student loans. It provides a broader read on household borrowing stress beyond the credit card signal.
  • Delinquency spikes during recessions (2001, 2008–2009, 2020) are clearly visible; the COVID spike was brief due to widespread forbearance programs.
  • FRED series: Credit Cards — DRCCLACBS · Other Consumer Loans — DROCLACBS · Mortgages — DRSFRMACBS. Quarterly, SA.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Consumer Prices — Indexed to Jan 2020

CPI components set to 100 in January 2020. Values above 100 reflect cumulative price growth since just before COVID. Headline and Core shown by default; click the legend to add other categories.

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · CPI-U (Seasonally Adjusted) · bls.gov/cpi

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services — including food, housing, clothing, transportation, medical care, and recreation.
  • Headline CPI includes all items in the basket and is the broadest measure of consumer inflation. Because it captures every category, it can be volatile — a single spike in gasoline or food prices can move the headline number significantly in a single month.
  • Core CPI excludes food and energy to reveal the underlying inflation trend less distorted by commodity volatility. The Federal Reserve and most economists focus on core measures when assessing whether inflation is becoming broad-based and entrenched.
  • Shelter is the largest CPI component (~36%) and tends to lag actual rent trends by 12–18 months, due to how BLS captures housing costs.
  • When headline and core diverge sharply, energy or food is the driver — not broad-based demand-side inflation.
  • Learn more about the Consumer Price Index

What's Driving Inflation? — CPI Contributions by Category

Each bar shows how many percentage points a category contributed to the headline CPI year-over-year rate. Bars stack to approximately equal the headline rate (shown as a line). A shrinking Energy bar, for example, signals that commodity prices — not broad demand — were pulling inflation down.

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · CPI-U (Seasonally Adjusted) · bls.gov/cpi

  • How contributions are calculated: Each category's contribution equals its relative importance weight multiplied by that category's 12-month percent change. Weights are approximate annual averages from the BLS relative importance table.
  • The five categories form a complete partition of headline CPI-U: Food + Energy + Core Goods + Shelter + Core Services ex Shelter = Headline. Core = everything except food and energy.
    • Energy — gasoline, electricity, natural gas, and heating oil. The most volatile category; a single supply disruption can swing headline CPI by a full percentage point or more.
    • Food — groceries (food at home) and restaurant meals (food away from home).
    • Core Goods — physical products excluding food and energy: new and used vehicles, clothing, furniture, appliances, and medications.
    • Shelter — rent paid to landlords, plus an estimate of what homeowners would pay to rent their own home (owners' equivalent rent). The largest single component, at roughly 36% of the index.
    • Core Services ex Shelter — services beyond housing and energy: medical care, auto insurance, airfares, haircuts, hotel stays, and recreation. Sometimes called "Supercore," this category tracks most closely with wage growth and domestic demand.
  • Note: The stacked bars may differ slightly from the headline line due to the use of fixed approximate weights rather than time-varying basket shares, and due to rounding of values to one decimal place.
  • BLS series: Headline — CUSR0000SA0 · Core Services ex Shelter — CUSR0000SASL2RS · Shelter — CUSR0000SAH1 · Core Goods — CUSR0000SACL1E · Food — CUSR0000SAF · Energy — CUSR0000SA0E. All CPI-U, seasonally adjusted.
  • Learn more about the Consumer Price Index
Producer Price Index (PPI)

Producer Prices — Indexed to Jan 2020

Producer prices measure what businesses receive when they sell their output — upstream in the supply chain, before goods and services reach consumers. When producer costs rise, businesses often pass them forward, making producer prices an early signal of future consumer inflation. All series indexed to January 2020.

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · Producer Price Index · bls.gov/ppi

  • The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers for their output — what a manufacturer, farmer, or service provider is paid, before goods or services reach the consumer. Because PPI sits earlier in the supply chain, rising producer costs often feed into consumer prices with a lag of one to six months, making PPI a useful leading indicator for CPI trends.
  • Final Demand refers to output sold directly to end users — households, businesses making capital investments, and government — rather than to other producers for further processing. The BLS adopted the Final Demand framework as the headline PPI measure in 2014.
  • Total Final Demand (WPSFD4) is the broadest headline measure.
  • FD less Food, Energy & Trade (WPSFD4131) strips out the three most volatile components — sometimes called "core" PPI — and is watched by the Fed as a signal of underlying producer price pressure.
  • FD Food (WPSFD411) — unprocessed and processed food products sold for final use.
  • FD Energy (WPSFD412) — electricity, natural gas, and petroleum products sold to final users.
  • FD Trade Services (WPSFD431) — retailer and wholesaler margins; measures the change in margins received by trade businesses rather than the price of goods themselves.
  • Learn more about the Producer Price Index

State Economic Momentum Index

A composite index of five indicators measuring each state's economic momentum relative to the U.S. average. 100 = U.S. baseline; above 100 indicates stronger momentum, below 100 indicates weaker momentum.

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  • What it measures: The State Economic Momentum Index combines five key indicators into a single score that captures whether a state economy is running faster or slower than the national baseline. A score of 100 indicates that a state's overall economic momentum is aligned with the national trend. Scores above 100 reflect stronger relative growth, while scores below 100 reflect weaker growth. Individual indicators may still outperform or underperform the U.S. even when the composite index is near 100.
  • Real GDP Growth — 30% weight: Percent change in real GDP (chained 2017 dollars) over the selected time period. The broadest measure of economic output and the primary driver of the index. Directly comparable across states and to the national accounts. Source: BEA SQGDP9.
  • Employment Growth — 25% weight: Year-over-year percent change in civilian employment. Captures the labor market's absorptive capacity and reflects business investment decisions in real time. A reliable concurrent indicator of consumer spending. Source: BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS).
  • Personal Income Growth — 20% weight: Real percent change in personal income over the selected time period, deflated by the national PCE price index. Covers wages, salaries, and transfer payments, linking economic output to household purchasing power. Note: the national deflator removes aggregate inflation but does not capture state-level price differences; states with structurally higher or lower local price growth (e.g., high-cost coastal states) may be slightly overstated or understated. Source: BEA SQINC1; PCE deflator: BEA NIPA T20304.
  • Population Growth — 15% weight: Year-over-year percent change in resident population (Q4-over-Q4). Sustained in-migration expands the labor force and drives demand for housing, retail, and services — a medium-term signal of structural economic capacity. Source: BEA SQINC1 LineCode 2.
  • Residential Building Permits — 10% weight: Year-over-year percent change in rolling 12-month total permits issued. A forward-looking indicator of housing construction, developer confidence, and household formation expectations. Source: Census Bureau BPS via FRED.
  • Methodology: Each indicator is standardized relative to the U.S. average using z-scores, allowing states to be compared across metrics with different scales and volatility. States performing above the national trend receive positive contributions, while states below trend receive negative contributions. Extreme values are capped to reduce the influence of outliers. The standardized indicators are then combined using the weights above and scaled so that 100 represents the U.S. average.
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Real GDP by State

Percent change in real GDP (chained 2017 dollars) for each U.S. state and D.C.

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  • State GDP can be volatile due to industry concentration. Energy-heavy states (ND, WY) fluctuate with commodity prices; finance-heavy states (NY, CT) with market activity.
  • D.C. figures reflect the federal government's outsized share of its economy — large swings often reflect changes in federal spending or contract activity rather than broader economic trends.
  • Real GDP is measured in chained 2017 dollars, removing the effect of price changes so that comparisons reflect actual output growth.
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GDP by Industry — Year-over-Year Growth

Real GDP growth by industry. Click any column header to sort.

Real Personal Income by State

Inflation-adjusted percent change in personal income for each U.S. state and D.C.

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  • Personal income is the sum of three broad components, each driven by different economic forces:
    • Earnings — wages & salaries, employer supplements (pension and health-insurance contributions), and proprietors' income. The largest component; moves closely with employment and hours worked.
    • Personal current transfer receipts — government payments such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment insurance, and veterans' benefits. More stable and countercyclical: they rise automatically during downturns.
    • Property income — dividends, interest, and rental income. More concentrated among higher-income households and sensitive to interest-rate cycles and equity-market performance.
  • Inflation adjustment: growth rates shown are real — nominal personal income (BEA SQINC1) is deflated by the national PCE price index (BEA NIPA T20304). The formula is: real growth = (nominalCur ÷ nominalAnc) × (pceAnc ÷ pceCur) − 1. This removes the national inflation component so comparisons reflect purchasing-power gains rather than price-level increases.
  • State-level inflation differences exist but are not captured here. BEA Regional Price Parities show price levels vary significantly across states — Hawaii and New York are roughly 15–20% above the national average, while Mississippi and Arkansas are 13–15% below. However, the year-to-year change in those price-level gaps is small, so the national PCE deflator provides a reasonable approximation for most comparisons. The divergence becomes more meaningful over longer periods (5–10 years) in states with sustained housing-driven inflation.
  • Energy-producing states (ND, WY) can see income swing sharply with commodity prices, as proprietors' and royalty income responds quickly to oil and gas price cycles.
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Population Growth by State

Percent change in resident population for each U.S. state and D.C.

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  • Population growth rates are small by nature — a state growing at +1% annually is adding roughly 10 people per 1,000 residents per year. Annual variation is largely driven by net migration rather than natural increase.
  • Sun Belt states (TX, FL, SC, NC, ID, UT, AZ) consistently lead in population growth due to domestic migration driven by housing affordability and job markets.
  • Several Northeastern and Rust Belt states (CA, NY, IL) show flat or slightly negative population trends, reflecting ongoing domestic out-migration partially offset by international immigration.
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Employment Growth by State

Percent change in civilian employment for each U.S. state and D.C. Hover over a state to see employment levels and net change.

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  • LAUS methodology: the Bureau of Labor Statistics constructs these estimates using a signal-plus-noise model that combines Current Population Survey (CPS) national data, state unemployment insurance claims, and CES payroll employment as inputs. The model-based estimates are more reliable for small states than CPS alone, which has large sampling errors at the state level.
  • LAUS data is released approximately 5–6 weeks after the reference month. The hover tooltip shows employment in thousands (e.g., "18.2 M" = 18.2 million; "284 K" = 284 thousand).
  • For comparison, the U.S. total uses civilian employment from the Current Population Survey (LNS12000000), which is the national analogue to the household-survey-based LAUS state estimates.
  • Fast-growing Sun Belt states (TX, FL, AZ, NC, SC) tend to lead employment growth. Energy-producing states (ND, WY, OK) are sensitive to commodity price swings. D.C. reflects federal government hiring cycles and is often volatile relative to its small workforce.
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Employment by Industry — 1 Year Change

Percent change in nonfarm payroll employment by industry. Seasonally adjusted. Click any column header to sort.

  • Data source: BLS State and Area Employment (SAE) / Current Employment Statistics (CES). Nonfarm payroll employment — excludes farm workers, household workers, self-employed, and military. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
  • Year-over-year comparison: each value compares the latest available month to the same month one year prior. A positive value means more jobs than a year ago in that sector.
  • Hierarchy: Total Nonfarm Payroll is the broadest measure. Total Private covers all private industries. The Government row sums Federal, State, and Local sub-rows.
  • State coverage: industry-level breakdown is available for all states after running npm run fetch-data. Not all sub-industries are published for every state due to BLS non-disclosure rules — those cells show —.
  • Difference column (pp): percentage-point gap between Focus and Comparison YoY growth rates. Positive = Focus region growing faster than Comparison in that sector.

Building Permits by State

Percent change in 12-month rolling total building permits (all structure types) for each U.S. state and D.C. Hover over a state to see permit totals and the net change.

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  • 12-month rolling total: rather than showing a single month (which is volatile for smaller states), each value sums the most recent 12 months of permits and compares it to the equivalent 12-month window one year prior — computed as ((Current 12-Month Total ÷ Prior 12-Month Total) − 1) × 100. This smooths seasonal noise and short-term construction lumpiness, giving a clearer picture of the underlying trend.
  • What permits measure: a building permit authorizes construction of a new housing unit before a single shovel breaks ground. Permit issuance is a leading indicator of residential investment — typically 1 to 3 months ahead of actual housing starts and 6 to 12 months ahead of completions. Rising permits signal that developers expect sufficient demand to justify new supply.
  • Permit activity is heavily influenced by mortgage rates, local zoning and land-use regulation, and construction input costs. States with restrictive zoning (CA, NY, MA) tend to show structurally lower permit volumes relative to population than Sun Belt states with more permissive land-use regimes (TX, FL, SC, NC).
  • D.C. permit counts are very small (typically under 5 K annually) and can swing dramatically on a single large multifamily project, making the YoY percentage change unreliable as a trend signal.
  • Data source: U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey (monthly, not seasonally adjusted) — the same underlying data published on census.gov/construction/bps, distributed via the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database.
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